Boxing Odds: Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

With a short boxing career that’s been ridiculed for a lack of skillful competition, Jake Paul enters the ring against an experienced fighter in Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. as a huge favorite. The YouTube sensation has taken to the ring winning 11 of his 12 bouts with seven knockouts. Paul doesn’t have the mileage on his frame like Chavez, who has 62 professional fights on his resume. Paul enters the ring for the first time since beating former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson last November with early boxing betting odds at Prime listing him as a -800 favorite.

Some consider Chavez Jr. on the down slope of his career. He is 39-years-old and all six of his defeats came in a span of 12 fights that ended with a unanimous decision victory over David Zegarra in December 2021. If there is a silver lining for Chavez it’s that he hasn’t been busy recently. He was inactive for two and a half years following his win over Zegarra with a UD over former mixed martial artist Uriah Hall in July 2024.

Paul vs. Chavez Jr.

The 10-round cruiserweight fight between Jake Paul (11-1, 7 KOs) and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (54-6-1, 34 KOs) will take place on Saturday, June 28, 2025 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. The bout can be seen on DAZN pay-per-view.

Paul vs. Chavez Jr. Fight Preview

It’s hard to imagine Paul being as heavy a favorite as he is considering his career is fairly new and the opponents have been questionable. Most of Paul’s opponents have been retired MMA fighters with little or no experience inside the ring. He did battle Iron Mike Tyson in his most recent fight, which was more a publicity stunt than anything. Tyson hadn’t fought in almost 20 years and he was pushing 60 at the time of the bout. Paul won an eight round UD.

To his credit Paul has taken his boxing career seriously and has worked at becoming a better fighter. However, the one time he actually fought a professional boxer Paul was handed his first and so far only defeat. The fight was close with Tommy Fury earning an eight-round split decision victory. Since that setback Paul has won five fights with three of them by KO.

Prior to the agreement with Chavez Jr. Paul was close to securing a deal with super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez. That should give you an idea of how serious Paul is about this boxing stuff. Recently Paul discussed the upcoming bout against the former middleweight champion saying, “Chavez is most likely going to be the toughest opponent I have faced yet. The most experienced, literally the most number of fights out of any of my opponents.”

Throughout his professional career that started in 2003, Chavez Jr. has faced some of the sports best fighters, including Alvarez, with a knockout win rate of almost 63 percent. Chavez Jr. lost his bout against Alvarez by UD in 2017 in what was at the time just his third setback inside the ring.

Chavez has a long history of success winning regional titles and the WBC middleweight belt with a majority decision over Sebastian Zbik in 2011. After three successful title defenses, Chavez Jr. was beaten for the first time in his career, dropping a UD to Sergio Martinez in 2012. At the time he had a record of 46-1-1 with a NC.

It’s been a mixed bag since then for Chavez with some taking into account his age and deteriorating skill set. While his best days as a fighter are considered to be behind him, Chavez Jr. has been outspoken about the upcoming bout, showing a desire to continue his career at a high level. Prior to a two-fight winning streak, Chavez Jr. lost an eight-round split decision to Anderson Silva in June 2021. More than a year later, Paul beat Silva by UD.

Bet Paul vs. Chavez Jr.

With such short odds there isn’t much value backing Paul in this fight. And considering his lone loss came against an experienced boxer there is reason to back the underdog. The age gap is something that stands out, though, and Paul’s training regimen is intense giving him an advantage. Both fighters will have to adjust to the cruiserweight division with Paul dropping weight. Chavez Jr. enjoyed his success as a middleweight and isn’t accustomed to fighting at a higher weight.

Prime Boxing Pick

To move the odds in our favor, predicting a method of victory is important. Since Paul failed to KO a nearly 60-year-old Tyson, I’ll back this one going the distance with Paul scoring a unanimous decision.