Boca Raton Bowl Betting Tips: Odds, Matchup & Value

The Toledo Rockets finished the regular season scorching hot winning their last four games and allowing a total of 18 points in that stretch to secure a trip to the Boca Raton Bowl and a showdown with the high-flying Louisville Cardinals. The game is scheduled for Tuesday, December 23 at 2 p.m. ET in Boca Raton, FL and will air on ESPN.

Toledo vs. Louisville Preview

Handicapping bowl games is always difficult given the circumstances surrounding teams. The Rockets are dealing with the college football coaching carousel after Jason Candle was hired away by UConn. A successor has already been hired but the team will play this game under interim Robert Weiner.

The Rockets led the MAC in just about every defensive category, but they were nearly as good on the other side of the football. With Tucker Gleason throwing 21 TD passes and leading rusher Chip Trayanum adding 11 on the ground while averaging 5.7 yards per carry, Toledo had the MAC’s No. 1 total offense and scoring offense averaging 31.6 points.

The Rockets were 3rd nationally allowing just 247.8 yards and surrendered the fourth-fewest points in the FBS (12.2).
Winning their last 4 games by a combined score of 125-18 and covering the spread against the college football odds each time allowed the Rockets to finish 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS. It was their 16th straight non-losing season.
Their only game this season against a Power 4 program was a 24-16 loss to Kentucky in the season opener. Toledo stayed within the 10-point line and they’ve been a profitable bet.
Braden Awls, who led the MAC with 5 interceptions and Malachi Davis, who had 5.5 sacks, have opted out of the game leaving the Rockets shorthanded.

Louisville closed the regular season with a dominant 41-0 win over Kentucky, the same squad that beat Toledo earlier in the year, ending a 3-game losing streak in the process. One of those setbacks was in overtime to a middling Cal squad with the Cards an 18.5-point favorite on the college football betting line.

Overall, Louisville had just two payouts in games they closed as the favorite while going 4-8 ATS. In the finale against UK, Louisville was the underdog with several key offensive pieces on the shelf. The Cards played without their top 3 running backs and also have leading receiver Chris Bell out with a knee injury.

Braxton Jennings and Shaun Boykins Jr., who had 176 rushing yards between them entering the game, each had over 100 yards and Cards amassed 258 in the Kentucky game.
Louisville struggled offensively during their 3-game slide averaging 17.0 points, about half their season average.
Miller Moss accounted for 4 TDs (3 passing) against the Cats and leads the team with 9 rush TDs.

Toledo vs. Louisville Predictions

Toledo will be impacted by the players opting out of this game. Their stifling defense will miss the ball hawking ability of Awls and the pressure Davis puts on opposing QBs. Both teams will open up the offense putting the OVER in a good spot to cash.

Toledo vs. Louisville Betting Tips

Louisville is listed as a 7-point favorite with a moneyline price of -250.

In the only game this season they got points the Cards got the payout.

There were two common opponents this season with Louisville winning their games against Kentucky and Bowling Green by a combined score of 81-17 while Toledo lost both games.

The Rockets are +205 on the moneyline.

The total surfaced at 44.5, which would be the lowest in a Louisville game this season.

The Cardinals cashed the UNDER in 3 straight and in 6 of their last 8 games.

Toledo vs. Louisville Head to Head and Key Stats

The teams have played 8 times previously with Louisville holding a 5-3 advantage, but this is the first game since the 1981 season.
The Rockets had difficulty on the road this season with all four losses coming in away contests.
Louisville played UNDER the total in 3 of its 4 road games.
The Cardinals have a big win over CFP participant Miami handing the Canes one of their two regular season setbacks.