The Buffalo Bills have one last chance to continue their run of dominance in the AFC East. Having won the last five division titles the Bills enter their Week 15 tilt two games behind the New England Patriots for the top spot. The game takes place on Sunday, December 14 at 1 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium and can be seen on CBS.
Bills at Patriots Preview
With a comeback win over Cincinnati last week the Bills strengthened their position in the AFC playoff picture. This game isn’t so much about avenging the Week 5 loss to New England but rather continuing a run of strong play that’s allowed Buffalo to win its last two games. However, a win would be nice setting the stage for a frantic close to the season.
The key to Buffalo’s success is simple: when they score more than 20 points they’re 9-0. When scoring 20 or less they’re 0-4. The trend was holding up last week with the Bills down 28-18 midway through the fourth quarter. Josh Allen then tossed a pair of TD passes and the defense had a pick-six for 21 points in the span of 4½ minutes. Buffalo won 39-34.
- Allen accounted for 4 TDs last week tossing three scoring passes with another rushing TD. More importantly he didn’t throw an interception for the first time in five games.
- Despite their spotty play on offense impacted by 17 giveaways, the Bills have the second-best total offense and fifth-best scoring unit in the NFL.
- The Bills are in the bottom half of the NFL rankings in yards allowed per play, 3rd down defense and red zone defense. They’ve allowed at least 30 points in three of their last five games.
- The NFL’s second leading rusher, James Cook has balanced the attack with 1,308 yards.
The Pats are rested coming off their bye and should feel good about themselves after winning their last 10 games. With a win the Pats can clinch the AFC East and wouldn’t it be rewarding to do it at home against the team that’s won it the last five years. They might have to do it as a home dog since they are getting 1-point on the early NFL betting line.
Not looking ahead to their off week, the Pats took care of business in Week 13, jumping ahead of the Giants 17-0 in the first quarter and cruising to a 33-15 win. Drake Maye continues to make a case for MVP throwing for 282 yards and 2 TDs. Maye leads the NFL with a 71.5 completion percentage, has the second most passing yards and 23 TDs.
- The Pats are stingy on defense allowing just 296.4 yards and 18.5 points per game. They also have the 7th best 3rd down defense.
- One are of concern is in the red zone where the Pats are worst allowing an opponent TD on 73.1 percent of drives inside the 20.
- The UNDER is 5-2 in New England’s last 7 games.
- The Pats are 7-3 ATS during their current 10-game winning streak.
Bills at Patriots Predictions
With the division title in reach you can expect the Patriots to come out on fire. They also have the advantage of getting a week off to prepare for this game. The Bills have been inconsistent in recent meetings, including a 23-20 home loss earlier in the year. Still, Buffalo isn’t going to relinquish the crown easily and Josh Allen is a beast the Pats won’t be able to contain.
Bills at Patriots Betting Tips
- Despite having an inferior record and losing to the Pats in Week 5, the Bills are listed as a 1-point favorite on the early line.
- Buffalo is 4-7 against the NFL odds as a favorite this season.
- The Bills are a short -114 favorite on the moneyline with the Pats listed at +101.
- The total surfaced at 49.5.
- Both New England losses came at home during the first month of the season.
Bills at Patriots Head to Head and Key Stats
- The Pats are a team that has given Buffalo problems over the last few years winning 3 of the last 5 matchups with payouts in every game.
- All 3 wins came with New England getting points on the closing line, including their Week 5 triumph when the Pats were an 8-point road dog.
- The last 5 games have all been close with a combined margin of 23 points and no game decided by more than 7 points.
- Allen is just 7-7 in 14 career regular season starts against the Pats with 11 interceptions and 15 total turnovers.
