Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions, Odds & Betting Favorites

The NASCAR Cup Series is back at the Bristol Motor Speedway for this week’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race, the second race of the season held at the iconic track. This marks the 29th race of the season and the third in the 10-race Cup Series playoff. Denny Hamlin continues to lead The Chase with his margin shrinking after Kyle Larson took the checkered flag last week in Illinois. That victory also vaulted Larson to the top of the NASCAR betting board as the outright favorite. With the championship chase heating up NASCAR race predictions become a little more difficult.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview: Schedule, Track & Key Details

NASCAR is back at Bristol for a second time following the April running of the Food City 500, which was won by Ty Gibbs. Kyle Larson placed third in the April race and enters with momentum after snapping a 51-race title drought with his victory in the Enjoy Illinois 300. Larson became the seventh different driver to post a victory in the last seven races. The Bass Pro Shops Night Race has taken place under the lights since 1978 with Christopher Bell returning as the defending champion. Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with three wins in this race and is always a factor in NASCAR race predictions.

Date, Time and Location

• The 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race is scheduled to take place on Sunday, September 19.
• The green flag drops at 7:30 p.m. ET with live television coverage on USA Network.
• Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tenn., hosts its second race of the season. It’s a high-banked, 0.533-mile concrete oval track with the race covering 500 laps (266.5 miles).

Track Characteristics and Racing Conditions

• The unique track characteristics of short length with steep banking create some of the most grueling, high-intensity racing conditions in motor sports.
• The race track forces drivers to make split-second decisions with zero room for error. Bristol has been described as “flying a fighter plane in a gymnasium.”
• Bristol is a tight 0.533-mile concrete oval with brief 650-foot straightaways and massive, wide-open corners.

Why This Race Matters

• As The Chase for the NASCAR championship heats up the races become more important for points. Leader Denny Hamlin saw his lead in the standings trimmed to just 9 points over Kyle Larson after last week’s results.
• The economic stakes are higher than ever with the 2026 purse ballooning to nearly $12 million, up significantly from a year ago.
• A four-time short-track winner this season, this is a huge spot for Denny Hamlin to build on his point cushion. He’s also a four-time winner at Bristol.

WHERE ARE YOU BETTING FROM?

Select your state and download the app.

Ohio Ohio New Jersey New Jersey Kentucky Kentucky

Drivers and Teams to Watch Before the Race

We saw two lengthy winless droughts end in the last two races with Christopher Bell snapping a 33-race skid with his victory at Darlington followed by Kyle Larson ending his string of 51 starts without a victory last week near St. Louis. All told there have been seven different winners in the last seven Cup Series races. With Larson’s win last week and the short-track success of Denny Hamlin, those two are the top NASCAR betting odds favorites in the Bristol night race.

Leading Championship Contenders

• Kyle Larson has a strong track record at Bristol with two wins and six top 5 finishes in his last seven starts. And coming off his first win in 52 races he’s easily the race favorite.
• Looking to expand his narrow lead in the championship points race, Denny Hamlin gets a chance to show off his elite short-track consistency that’s helped him win twice with four top 5s in his last six starts at Bristol.
• Ty Gibbs won the drama-filled overtime race at Bristol in April and has been remarkably consistent, elevating him to the third favorite in the outright market.

Drivers With Strong Recent Form

• A strong run to close the regular season that included a win in Iowa pushed Ty Gibbs up the standings. He recorded his 11th top 5 finish with a runner-up at Darlington two weeks ago.
• Joey Logano continues to surge up the standings following a podium finish last week. He was close to missing the playoff altogether but he’s been one of the top drivers recently.
• Kyle Larson is bloated with confidence after ending his title drought. He heads to Bristol where he’s won three times with seven top 5s in his last eight starts.

Potential Dark Horse Performers

• With a strong history at Bristol that includes a night race victory in 2022 and a solid short-track resume, Chris Buescher carries value as a dark horse at his price.
• Sitting in the second-tier of race favorites, Chase Briscoe is a fringe dark horse contender. He’s been reliable at Bristol with a strong average driver rating resulting in four straight top 10s.
• Tyler Reddick saw his odds slip after a wreck last week dropped him to 25th. This creates massive value for a driver with elite speed and two top 5s at Bristol.

Understanding the Race Odds and Betting Markets

The most straightforward NASCAR betting market is backing the outright winner on the moneyline. Odds are displayed in number form and in this market we almost always see drivers with a plus (+) sign indicating the exact profit on a baseline $100 bet. Other markets will have negative (-) odds favorites meaning that number must be wagered to make a $100 profit. 

Understanding motorsports betting odds can directly influence a wager since the numbers vary from race to race based on the type of course and driver history. Knowing how to read the odds and spot discrepancies is essential for finding value in motorsports betting.

Outright Winner Odds

• Kyle Larson +330
• Denny Hamlin +430
• TY Gibbs +500
• Ryan Blaney +550
• Christopher Bell +600
• Chase Briscoe +1090
• William Byron +1380
• Joey Logano +1530
• Tyler Reddick +1530
• Chase Elliott +1960

Head-to-Head and Other Popular Markets

• Matchups have potentially the best long-term return because they eliminate the volatility of predicting a single winner in a crowded field.
• Podiums and top finishes provide a safety net when backing an underdog or dark horse. You can wager on a driver to finish within a specific tier like top 3, top 5 or top 10. 
• Manufacturer bets allow you to wager on which vehicle brand will win the race. It’s a safer alternative to picking an outright winner with respectable payouts.

How Track Conditions Can Influence Odds

• Track conditions play a significant role in how fast cars drive, tire wear, and handling, forcing betting line shifts before and during a race weekend.
• Severe weather shifts between qualifying rounds and race day can have a significant effect on betting odds with certain drivers better suited for specific conditions.

Best Race Betting Picks and Value Opportunities

Snapping a 51-race winless drought could be the spark that ignites Kyle Larson, who along with Denny Hamlin, are short-track specialists with both sitting atop the Bass Pro Shops Night Race outright betting markets. There have been some unpredictable moments on the Cup Series circuit recently, though; with the last seven races each having a different winner.

Top Driver Pick to Win

• Car trouble at Darlington and mid-race chaos last week impacted Denny Hamlin in the final results. He was able to ground out a ninth-place finish at WWT Raceway and should be considered the favorite this week.
• Hamlin is one of the best short-track drivers out there with 15 career wins, including four at Bristol. He also has a chance to improve his lead in the playoff point standings.
• It looks like we’re backing Hamlin until he finally gets it right. He’s won four times this season but hasn’t taken the checkered flag since Pocono in June.

Value Pick Outside the Favorites

• A few drivers in the second-tier of favorites are strong race betting picks. Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick have top-level speed and success at Bristol.
• Logano had arguably the fastest car at WWT Raceway before finishing third and he has two career wins at Bristol.
• A multi-car crash last week dropped Reddick down the leaderboard and impacted his odds for this race. He has elite speed with his five wins the most in the Cup Series this season.

Betting Markets Worth Considering

• When wagering on the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, look beyond the outright winner market for more lucrative wagering options.
• Better value can be found in driver matchups, top 3/5/10 finishes and manufacturer props giving better value and safer exposure to shield from the chaotic environment at Bristol.

Race Winner Prediction and Final Picks

Short-track specialists are the target for race betting predictions at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Bristol is a unique track that requires precision, physical endurance and patience from drivers. The track rewards a specific blend of driving traits that Denny Hamlin possesses.

Predicted Race Winner

• While the favorite doesn’t always win they are more times than not among the short list of drivers among the race winner predictions. 
• Unfortunate circumstances in the last two races prevented Hamlin from finishing higher and he’s enduring a stretch right now that he’s not used to. With his Cup Series Championship lead slipping I expect the short-track specialist to shine at Bristol.

Driver Who Could Surprise

• NASCAR analysts are targeting Carson Hocevar as a driver who could surprise and shock the field this week. He secured Spire Motorsports’ best-ever finish at Bristol with a seventh in the 2025 night race and he’s evolved into a competent short-track master.