Arizona Bowl Preview: Odds, Picks & Betting Tips

Overcoming an 0-3 start the Miami RedHawks won 7 of their last 9 regular season games to sneak into the MAC championship, where they fell to eventual league champion Western Michigan. For the fifth straight season the RedHawks are bowling taking on the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Arizona Bowl. The game is set for Saturday, Dec. 27 at 4:30 p.m. ET from Arizona Stadium in Tucson and can be seen on the CW Network.

Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State Preview

It took the RedHawks some time to come together, but once they did they were hard to stop. Despite getting shutout 17-0 by Wisconsin in the season opener, Miami is third in the MAC in scoring averaging 25.1 points. They closed the regular season scoring a season-high point total in a 45-24 win over Ball State.

Miami was able to keep an offensive flow despite three different starting QBs over the last month. The team has settled on Thomas Gotkowski, who entered the season third on the depth chart. Gotkowski had 4 TD passes and the RedHawks averaged 41 points in their final two regular season games going OVER the total on the college football odds both times.

Gotkowski is Miami’s third different starter and has had his ups and downs. He didn’t throw his first pass until the Week 13 Buffalo game and the true freshman has been erratic.
Miami makes its second straight appearance in the Arizona Bowl, knocking off another Mountain West Conference team, Colorado State, 43-17, last year.
Miami has the 3rd best scoring defense in the MAC allowing 22.0 points per game.
The RedHawks average less than 200 yards per game through the air and they will be impacted by the loss of Kam Perry, who averages 23.0 yards per catch.

Fresno State did what it does best in the regular season finale. The Bulldogs pounded the ball relentlessly on the ground amassing 259 yards and 3 TDs with six different players getting more than 20 yards in a 41-14 win over San Jose State. For the season the Bulldogs average almost 170 rushing yards per game.

The college football daily line has Fresno State as a 5.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU when playing as the favorite but just 4-4 ATS. FSU has been stingy on defense allowing an average of less than 300 yards per game to rank 2nd in the MWC. They lead the conference and are tied for 4th nationally with 19 interceptions.

The Bulldogs intercepted five San Jose State passes in the regular season finale giving them 24 takeaways this season, tied for 11th in the FBS.
FSU wouldn’t mind getting into a grinder game with their running attack and strong defense. They can throw the ball, though, with E.J. Warner completing nearly 70 percent of his throws.
It’s hard to stop the ground game with four players totaling more than 200 rushing yards, led by Rayshon Luke with 690 yards and 6 TDs.
The Bulldogs have payouts in 3 of their last 4 games.

Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State Predictions

This appears to be an evenly matched game between strong G5 programs. Both teams would prefer to run the ball, but the Bulldogs can throw when needed. That’s an important distinction given the RedHawks QB and receiver situation. That also puts Fresno State in a good spot to cover the college football betting line.

Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State Betting Tips

Fresno State is listed as a 5.5-point favorite.
The college football money lines have FSU at -218 with Miami at +180.
The total surfaced at 41.5
The RedHawks cashed the OVER in 4 of 5 games with a closing total of 41.5 or lower.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Fresno State’s last 8 games.

Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State Head to Head and Key Stats

This will be the first-ever meeting between the programs.
The RedHawks are 9-7 all-time in bowl games with a 7-7 record as a major college program. They are the defending Arizona Bowl champs beating Colorado State 43-17 last year.
Fresno State had a 5-game bowl winning streak end with last year’s 28-20 loss to Northern Illinois in the Potato Bowl.