Alabama vs Florida State Betting Guide – Odds, Picks & Tips

The 2024 season proved to be a painful transition for head coach Kalen DeBoer and the Alabama Crimson Tide. DeBoer learned a harsh lesson about being the man who follows the man. DeBoer had the courage and confidence to believe that he could successfully take over from the GOAT of college coaching, Nick Saban. Time will tell if that is the case, but there is a sense that the worst is over for DeBoer and the Tide. Expectations are high for Alabama to make the 2025 College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, head coach Mike Norvell and the Florida State Seminoles took a major step back in 2024. But Norvell orchestrated an offseason reboot that has fans and gamblers thinking that Florida State could be one of the top surprises in 2025.

Alabama vs. Florida State Preview

On Saturday, August 30, 2025, the Florida State Seminoles will host the Alabama Crimson Tide at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff time is 3:30 p.m. ET with coverage on ABC.

The Seminoles will play their first home game at the refurbished Doak Campbell Stadium, but the game will be played at the peak of the miserably oppressive daytime August Florida heat.

The 2024 Florida State collapse was monumental. The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers. On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents.

For Alabama, Ryan Grubb, Washington's 2023 offensive coordinator, is back in tow with DeBoer after a year in the pros. Likely starting quarterback Ty Simpson was the nation's No. 2 dual-threat quarterback prospect in 2022.

The Alabama defense should already be great. Last season, the Tide ranked fifth in points allowed per drive, combining top-20 efficiency (success rate) and big-play prevention (yards allowed per successful play) with elite red zone play and turnover capabilities. Best of all, of the 19 players who saw 200-plus snaps, 13 return.

Alabama vs. Florida State Predictions

In this situation, Florida State is getting plenty of points at home, which initially looks like a good deal with plenty of potential value. But Alabama has the better and deeper roster. Alabama may not have had the season it wanted in 2024, but it was not an utter catastrophe like it was for Florida State. As for Florida State’s home field advantage, it may not be much of one at all. There will be plenty of Alabama fans on hand for the relatively short road trip, and the brutal, suffocating heat will keep many fans in the shade. To conclude, Alabama offers more value against an unproven Florida State team with a massive roster makeover and new coordinators.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida State Seminoles Prime Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama vs. Florida State Betting Tips

The Alabama Crimson Tide opened as a -13-point road favorite with a moneyline price of -535. The Florida State Seminoles are a 13.5-point home dog with a moneyline price of +400. The Seminoles and Crimson Tide opened with a total of 50.5.

Despite their setback season of 2024, the Alabama Crimson Tide remains a powerful public brand. That is especially the case against the Florida State Seminoles, who suffered a massive collapse last year that is hard for gamblers to forgive or forget. Additionally, Alabama carries the SEC pedigree and the price that comes with that. In an era where many gamblers consider the ACC second-class, they much prefer Alabama over Florida State. The one concern that most gamblers have is just how improved Florida State actually is, especially in comparison to the Crimson Tide.

Alabama vs. Florida State Head-to-Head and Key Stats

The Seminoles and Crimson Tide last met in 2017 with Alabama getting the cash in a 24-7 win as 7.5-point home favorites. The game went under the total of 51.5.

In their last nine games as a road favorite of ten or more points, the Alabama Crimson Tide is 5-4 against the spread. Six of those nine games went over the total. Overall, Alabama covered the number in five of their last nine games as a road chalk at any price. Six of their last nine games in that role went over the total.

By contrast, the Seminoles failed to cover three of their last five games as a home dog of 10 or more points. Three of those five games went under the total. Additionally, the Seminoles failed to get the money in three of their last eight games as a home dog at any price. Four of their last five games in that role went under the total.