AFC West Showdown: Chiefs at Broncos Betting Tips

The fall of the Kansas City Chiefs has been the most stunning development in the 2025 NFL season.

Since 2015, the Chiefs have made the NFL Playoffs every year as the AFC West champions. However, those streaks are over, as is the Chiefs' reputation with gamblers.

Kansas City has lost marquee man QB Patrick Mahomes for the rest of the season and perhaps all of 2026. The Chiefs are a mere shell of themselves and no longer have cachet with the pro football betting community.

Kansas City has a forlorn home date with the Denver Broncos on Christmas evening. The Broncos have taken away Kansas City’s AFC West crown and will be a popular choice against the aged and shorthanded Chiefs.

It will be the most somber Christmas in Kansas City since 1971, when the Chiefs lost the longest game ever played to the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Divisional Playoffs.

Any prime time Christmas matchup is going to draw considerable betting traffic, and this game will be no exception.

Chiefs at Broncos Preview

On Thursday, December 25, 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET, with television coverage on Amazon Prime Video.

• The Chiefs and Broncos have shared the same division since 1960 as then-charter members of the American Football League.

• Thus, the rivalry has branding cachet with gamblers.
• Denver’s resurgence will create interest and NFL betting traffic.

Public Betting Odds Factors

• Denver will be a popular pick with sharps as the power road team getting a better price.

• The Chiefs are a tough sell with the casual sector based on Mahomes’ being out and their poor season.

• Kansas City has not provided reliable betting value, and gamblers are turning away from the Chiefs.

• Dener has a distinct advantage on defense, and that will be more pronounced without Mahomes.

Chiefs at Broncos Predictions

Handicapping Factors to Consider 

• Certainly, the dynamics have flipped in the AFC West.

• Denver has shown more value and superior form.

• Kansas City has lost its best player and much of its fight and desire.

• Kansas City’s loss to a putrid Tennessee team is quite a tell.

• Denver will be motivated to get back on track after its embarrassing loss to Jacksonville.

Chiefs at Broncos Prime Best Bet: Denver Broncos 

Chiefs at Broncos Betting Tips

• Denver opened as a 12.5-point favorite with Kansas City a 12.5-point dog.

• Denver is a -950 moneyline chalk with Kansas City at +640.

• The Broncos and Chiefs opened at an over/under of 37.5.

Kansas City Chiefs 

• In their last game, the Kansas City Chiefs lost 26-9 to the Tennessee Titans as 3.5-point road favorites.

• The game went under the total of 37.5.

• Kansas City is 6-9 straight up, 5-10 against the spread, and 4-11 over/under the total.

• Overall, Kansas City ranks 15^th for total offense, 10^th for passing, 22^nd for rushing, 20^th for scoring, and 7^th for fewest turnovers committed.

• Kansas City ranks 10^th for total defense, 12^th vs. the pass, 8^th vs. the rush, 4^th for fewest points allowed, and 22^nd for takeaways.

• Kansas City has covered none of its last seven games. Kansas City went under the total in three of its last three matchups.

Denver Broncos 

• Last game, the Denver Broncos lost 34-20 to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3.5-point road favorites.

• The game went over the total of 46. As a result, Denver is 12-3 straight up, 6-8-1 against the spread, and 7-8 over/under the total.

• Denver ranks 10^th in total offense, 9th in passing, 19th in rushing, 13th in scoring, and 14th in fewest turnovers committed.

• Denver ranks 4^th in total defense, 10th vs. the pass, 1st vs. the rush, 5th in fewest points allowed, and 20th in takeaways.

• Late on, Denver has covered three out of its most recent four games.

• Denver went over the total in four of its last four matchups.

Chiefs at Broncos Head-to-Head and Key Stats

• On November 16, Denver defeated Kansas City 22-19 as 4.5-point home dogs. The game went under the total of 45.

• In the series between the Broncos and Chiefs, Denver has dominated the payout window with seven payouts in their last eight meetings with Kansas City.

• The last five meetings between the Broncos and Chiefs went under the total.

• Specifically in Kansas City, Denver covered the spread in three of their most recent five visits.

• Six of the last seven games between the Broncos and Chiefs in Kansas City went under the total.

• Despite its success over the past two seasons, Denver has been a poor road value.

• The Broncos failed to cover the spread in eight of their most recent ten away games.

• Denver went under the total in four of their last six road tilts.

• Meanwhile, Kansas City has had mixed results at Arrowhead.

• The Chiefs failed to get the money in their most recent three home games but covered the spread in the four home games before that.

• The Chiefs went under the total in their most recent six home tilts.