The teams with the best regular season record in the AFC will collide with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. However, the Denver Broncos won’t be putting out their best team when they host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship. The game is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 25, 2026 at Mile High Stadium and can be seen on FOX.
Patriots at Broncos Preview
The loss of Denver QB Bo Nix shifted the NFL betting line in favor of the Patriots, who emerged as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday, a difference of six points from the lookahead line. They better not read too much into that line, though, and rather focus on their own struggles from a 28-16 win over Houston in the divisional round.
Sure the Pats scored 28 points against one of the NFL’s top defenses, but they failed on numerous occasions to turn five takeaways into additional points. Drake Maye looked far from the MVP candidate. He turned the ball over three times with an interception and two fumbles while also taking 5 sacks. He will have to limit mistakes against Denver’s aggressive D.
- The Pats had just 19 takeaways during the regular season but they closed with a flurry gaining 5 in their final 3 games. The trend continued with 5 takeaways last week.
- Going on the road isn’t a bad thing for the Pats, who were the only team during the season to go undefeated in road games. They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS away from home this season.
- The defense has been lights out over the last 4 games allowing just 3 TDs and 39 total points with opponents average 233.8 yards per game in that span.
- The Pats are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS this season when favored by at least 5 points.
The last time the Broncos were the No. 1 seed was a decade ago when they beat New England in the AFC title game en route to a Super Bowl victory at the same venue this season’s game is being played. The difference back then is that they had their starting QB. In order for history to repeat the Broncos are relying on a backup who hasn’t started a game in two years.
Jarrett Stidham has been with the organization for three years and is familiar with the game plan. He’ll have to manage the offense and not turn the ball over while relying on a stingy defense to do the rest. Eight times during the season the Broncos scored 20 points or less and they went 6-2 in those games.
- Stidham hasn’t started a NFL game or thrown a pass since Week 18 of the 2023 season.
- The defense allowed 30+ points for the third time this season in last week’s OT win over Buffalo, but they did force 5 turnovers and sacked Josh Allen 3 times.
- The Broncos have the best home record in the NFL with last week’s win moving them to 9-1 SU at Mile High. They are also 7-3 against the NFL betting line in those games.
- Denver has at least one sack in all 18 games and has recorded 3 sacks or more in 14 of those outings, including in last week’s win over Buffalo.
Patriots at Broncos Predictions
The Pats put up 28 points against a solid Houston defense last week, but it probably should’ve been more considering they forced 5 turnovers. The offense was disrupted with Maye turning the ball over 3 times and the Pats managed just 248 yards. With a backup in place the Broncos are likely to play conservatively leading to fewer points and giving value to the UNDER.
Patriots at Broncos Betting Tips
- The Patriots were a slight underdog before news of Nix’s injury surfaced, moving the needle in favor of New England to -5.
- The Pats covered in their 2 playoff games and have 5 straight payouts dating back to the regular season. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
- The Broncos are 4-1 SU and ATS this season when catching points.
- The NFL moneyline has New England at -243 with Denver at +210.
- The total is listed at 42.
- The OVER is 6-1 in New England’s last 7 games.
Patriots at Broncos Head to Head and Key Stats
- This will be the third meeting between the teams in the AFC Championship with all 3 taking place in Denver. The Broncos won the previous 2 matchups.
- The teams last met in Week 16 of the 2023 season with New England getting a 26-23 road triumph, their third in the last 4 meetings and third straight in Denver.
- Denver’s last home win over the Pats was in the 2015 season AFC Championship, 20-18, propelling them to the Super Bowl.
