Understanding Sports Betting Markets: A Complete Guide

An effective way of understanding sports betting markets is to compare them to the stock market. Similar to stocks on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, Russell, or the NASDAQ, the sports betting market is a lot about branding and how the betting public views those brands.

Sports teams like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Celtics, and Kansas City Chiefs resemble blue-chip, large-cap stocks everyone recognizes and respects; however, like in the stock market, such brands can be overpriced and generate too much public betting action, which can make those brands overpriced and less valuable.

Understanding betting markets means you have a grasp on perception, ability, and price.

Sportsbooks offer a wide variety of wagering options. Like the stock market, some options don’t draw much interest. But other options will draw a massive amount of sports wagering activity. Yet, the opportunities are vastly different.

A bet on an obscure college basketball game could offer greater potential value than a wager on the Super Bowl. This is why prudent sports bettors should look for upsides wherever they can.

What Are Sports Betting Markets?

A fitting example of a sports betting market is the futures market. In the futures market, gamblers can bet on the odds for a team to win the league championship. They can also bet over/under total plays for a team's wins or points in a season, individual player achievements, etc.

Understanding betting markets means understanding the wide variety of options available to gamblers.

In this sports betting market guide, we will explain the different sports markets, such as football, basketball, baseball, hockey, and soccer. Next, within each of those markets are additional markets available for sides, totals, moneylines, quarters, halves, props, and live betting.

A live betting market could not differ more from a futures market wager.

In the live, or in-game betting markets, you will see constant price fluctuations during a game, which requires a snap judgment. In comparison, a future market wager is the epitome of long-term investing, where a wager can take several months to resolve.

How Sports Betting Markets Work

Although sports betting markets offer plenty of wagering options, the actual premise is simple: no matter what sports market you are betting on, sportsbooks create prices that will draw equal amounts of betting action on both sides.

By doing so, the sportsbook will make a profit off the percentage of commission it charges for each bet, which is known as juice or vig.

How Sportsbooks Create Markets

When first learning the ins and outs of understanding betting markets, it is important to know that the prices you see are based on the oddsmaker's knowledge of each team’s or player’s ability, which is related to how the public perceives those abilities.

A sports betting market is based on significant data, including past and recent performance, performance data used to compare within the matchup, and related algorithms associated with the data.

Additionally, oddsmakers track the algorithms of the betting public, based on which participants and brands move the prices most dramatically and why. Algorithms must also be compared to news and social media trends that can affect public wagering opinions.

How Odds Are Set and Adjusted

Odds are set based on a team’s ability and the public perception of those abilities.

For example, in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, the Boston Celtics were the vastly superior team in their matchup against the Orlando Magic.

Thus, oddsmakers made Boston the favorite in all five games of the series. Oddsmakers knew that the public would want to bet on the Celtics and not the Magic, based on the respective brand reputations of the teams, especially if the game was in Boston.

But an overload of action on one team puts a sportsbook at financial risk.

For example, in game five, with a chance to clinch the series at home, Boston was an 11-point home favorite. That price was set to entice roughly half the gambling public to take the points with Orlando to make the betting activity even, allowing the sportsbooks to profit from the vig.

Public Betting Influence on Markets

The public profoundly influences the sports betting market and the prices/odds you see on the board. Understanding betting markets involves understanding public perception, just like the stock market.

For example, McDonald’s may not be the highest-quality product. Still, it maintains a higher price on the stock market than comparable brands because the public is fixated on the brand itself. The same holds for other stocks, such as General Motors, Coca-Cola, etc.

Now, let’s apply this brand appeal to sports.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Lakers draw more public betting action than other teams that could be superior, all because of how the public views them as brands.

Conversely, the Oklahoma City Thunder was a highly profitable team for gamblers as the highest-quality NBA club that the public largely ignored in the 2024-25 season.

Market Movements and Why They Happen

Market movements happen for a variety of reasons. Recent performance, player availability, and social media trends and narratives are the most common sports betting market factors that affect movements.

Injury News and Line Moves

Injury news can move a sports betting market as much as (or more than) any other factor.

If a key player is ruled out of a game, betting markets can profoundly change.

For example, if Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce are out of a game for the Kansas City Chiefs, the betting line may move several points; on the other hand, the public often overreacts to injuries, causing the line to move more in one direction than it should.

Again, injury news sways public perception, which moves the wagering markets.

Sharp Action vs. Public Money

The great divide when understanding betting markets is the sharps vs. the squares, also known as casuals or “public money.” Sharps, also known as Wise Guys, move the sports betting market, often in reaction to the public money.

The casual money often overreacts to news about injuries, weather, social media trends, etc. Sharps are contrarian thinkers, and if the public moves the betting line too far one way, the Wise Guys will jump in and take the enhanced value of the other side.

While casual gamblers are focused on brands, Sharps are focused on price and value.

Weather, Venue, and External Factors

Weather can be a major factor in the sports betting market. Football games played in rain, cold, excessive heat, or snow will factor into bet prices.

For example, the Miami Dolphins have a horrible reputation for their betting value in freezing weather. Oddsmakers know that the public will bet heavily against Miami, as will many Wise Guys; thus, the price of the other side can be quite expensive.

A venue can also affect the price of odds. Arrowhead Stadium, Lambeau Field, Dodger Stadium, Yankee Stadium, and Cameron Indoor Stadium are all iconic venues and brands that often increase the price for the home side.

Finding Value in Sports Betting Markets

Finding value in a sports betting market is like finding value in a stock. Ultimately, you want the combination of the highest probable outcome at the lowest possible price.

An indication that you have a firm understanding of betting markets is if you predict that a bet on one side is too costly and refuse to pay it.

What Is a “Value Bet”?

Sharps make their living as professional gamblers by locating value bets.

A notable example of a value bet is the 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder.

OKC is off the radar to most gamblers, compared to iconic NBA brands like the Lakers and Celtics, but the Thunder are an elite team that gets advantageous prices because the casual sector ignores them.

Oklahoma City went 68-14 straight up and 55-23-4 against the spread. Compare that to the Celtics, a classic name brand and public team. Boston went 61-21 but was in the red at 38-43-1 against the spread because of excessive prices from being such a popular public brand.

How to Spot Mispriced Odds

The most effective way to find mispriced odds on the sports betting market is to set your own lines first. Combine power rankings, statistical data, and your knowledge of branding and public perception to set your lines.

Then, compare your lines to the actual sportsbook prices. Whenever you see the biggest difference, you have found misplaced odds and a value opportunity.