Sharp Money vs. Public Money: Understanding How the Pros Bet

Sharp money is the Gospel of sports gambling. That is because it comes from seasoned professional gamblers whose livelihoods depend upon winning bets.

Sharp money is smart money, based on serious metrics that have actual impact.

On the other hand, public money resembles lemmings running off a cliff to drown. It's based on fanboys, public branding and reputations, sports and social media narratives, hype, and fear of underdogs, road teams, or opposing popular opinion.

Sharp money is bet by pros while public money is an amateur hour production.

What Is Sharp Money in Sports Betting?

Sharp money begins with professional gamblers who take a cold, fact-based approach. Sharps are not fans who are loyal to any team or players. Instead, the pros are all about exploiting advantages found on the betting lines.

Like the best stock market investments, sharp money is based on fundamental metrics and facts. Sharps find the highest probable outcome at the best possible price.

Hype and conventional wisdom are useful; they often bet against it. Pros who bet with sharp money often make decisions contrary to the crowd. Instead, they show courage because sharp money flies in the face of what the masses are thinking.

What Is Public Money in Sports Betting?

Public money is valuable in that it is consistently good to oppose it.

There is a simple adage about public money: all the fancy and spectacular properties on the Las Vegas strip were not built because the public money was smart. In fact, billions of dollars’ worth of public betting losses went into those opulent Las Vegas resorts.

Sharp money is based on Newton’s Third Law of Motion. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

The pros respond to massive amounts of public money with sharp money. Public money increases prices on the public side, increasing the value of sharp money on the other side of the bet. This is especially apparent with NFL sharp money, where the pros let the public amateurs drown in their hype and noise.

Sharp money is often based on pros who bet on the game instead of forcing the issue because of a post on X or the rants of panel discussions by commentators looking to generate clicks.

How to Identify Sharp Money vs. Public Money

It's not hard to identify sharp vs. public money. In fact, it's similar to reading poker tells.

Public money makes itself too obvious with bets on the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Lakers, or New York Yankees at home. Sharp money is subtle and may not make sense at first glance.

The public is blinded by media hype, brands, and conventional wisdom, so they miss the value that sharps easily identify.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM)

Despite all the talk of how the betting line is based on “what Vegas thinks,” the truth is, it's based on what Vegas believes the public thinks. Much like the stock market, betting prices are not always based on actual value or reality.

Sportsbooks want to attract equal betting action on both sides of a game. While that 50/50 split seems like an easy objective, achieving it is incredibly difficult. The biggest challenge comes from sharp money, and how a sportsbook determines what sharp money is in betting.

Sportsbooks do an excellent job of tracking and getting to know their clients, and it doesn't take long for sportsbooks to separate the sharp bettors from the squares.

NFL sharp money can put sportsbooks in a position of potential liability. If sportsbooks receive a significant number of bets from professional bettors on one side, they may adjust by implementing a reverse line movement. Adjusting the betting lines is how sportsbooks can chase away some action in one direction to even out their wagering balance sheet overall.

Steam Moves

Few factors in sports gambling attract more attention than steam moves, also referred to as “steam” or “steamers.”

A steam move is when sharp money comes in large and hard in one direction, forcing a dramatic change in the betting odds. A steamer will cause gamblers and sportsbooks to suspect that a betting syndicate or big-time pros are pounding the “right side.”

An example of a steam move would be the Kansas City Chiefs opening as a 3-point favorite against the Buffalo Bills, with the steam moving the Chiefs to a 5-point chalk. The question is whether bettors should follow and chase the steamer; however, that is not always the wisest course.

Remember, if you go with the steamer in this example, you get the Chiefs at the inflated sharp money price of -5 after the steamer settles.

In comparison, the initial price for the steamer was -3 on the Chiefs. Thus, the pros making the steamer got the 2-point discount. In any sport, those two points often differentiate between a win and a loss. Certainly, that is the case in the long term.

Betting Percentage vs. Money Percentage

Sharp money is highly selective and isolates only a few high-percentage bets that offer maximum value. Tracking how much money is bet on one side is more important than tracking how many bets are placed.

How to Bet with Sharp Money

Sharp money is most advantageous when you can find early line moves, reverse line moves, and when an underdog is drawing enhanced betting action.

Remember, squares hate taking the underdog; thus, if there is betting action towards the dog, it’s likely sharp money.

Use Line Movement Indicators

Line movement indicators are a helpful tool in finding sharp money. Thus, it is important to track as many lines from as many sources as possible.

Line movement indicators are a vastly more valuable resource than screaming commentators and X posts.

Compare Betting Percentages

Public betting percentages can help you find clues when trying to find sharp money.

The most effective way to compare betting percentages is to look for discrepancies between betting tickets and money wagered. The greater the difference, the more likely that sharp money is involved.

Timing Your Bets

In the stock market, it is said that anyone trying to time the markets is a fool. That can often be the case in sports betting, as most value was already found with the early lines.

Timing bets work best when the opening line is posted or at the very end, when you can compare opening and closing odds.

Examples of Sharp Money vs Public Money in Action

NFL Game Example

If 70% of the public has betting tickets on the Kansas City Chiefs against the Denver Broncos, but 60% of all money bet is on the Broncos, you have NFL sharp money going to Denver. It's more important to look at the total amount wagered than the total amount of tickets on one side.

College Basketball Example

A splendid example of sharp money often comes in college basketball games played in the smaller conferences, such as the Mid-American, Metro Atlantic, etc. When you see a big money move on such games, it's likely sharp money steam.