Over/Under Betting: A Complete Guide

Also referred to as a total bet, the over/under wager in a sporting match is popular due to its simplicity.

The bet is made on whether a certain statistic for a game will be higher or lower than the predetermined number assigned by oddsmakers.

Typically, the wager is used on combined points in a game, but can also be found for team and individual stat categories within a contest.

What Is Over/Under Betting?

The nice thing about betting the over/under is that you don’t need a horse in the race. If you're unsure of a potential outcome, this route makes sense since it’s not dependent on one side winning.

To better understand over/under betting, we’ll use the most common type of wager as an example: the combined score of the competing teams, also known as the total. Bettors predict whether more (over) or fewer (under) points will be scored between two clubs than the number posted by oddsmakers. Plenty of math goes into determining a total, with injuries, pace, and efficiency the biggest factors.

Once a total is determined, the amount wagered can impact the number.

Ideally, sportsbooks want an equal amount wagered on both sides to decrease their liability. If one side is getting considerably more action, the total will move in an attempt to get more bets on the other side.

How Over/Under Betting Works

This type of bet can be used on a variety of different statistics for either a team or a player; however, in nearly every team sport, there is a total based on the final score, making it the most common and popular over/under bet.

The over/under, or total, is a predetermined number for the combined point total. The bettor wagers whether the number scored by the teams goes over or under the predetermined total.

Over/Under Example: NBA Game Total

Due to the amount of scoring in an NBA game, it’s normal to see the total in the 220-230 range.

In this example, the total for a game between the Knicks and Celtics is set at 223.5. If you bet the over, the teams have to score more than 223 points to win the bet. For the under, 223 points or less would be a winner.

We often see the half-point hook on wagers, making it impossible for the final score to be the exact projected total. Another set of odds is released with the total known as vigorish or vig, the fee sportsbooks charge for taking the bet. Typically, that number is -110.

Over/Under Example: NFL Game Total

Let’s revisit Super Bowl LIX for an example of over/under betting in an NFL game. The total for the contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles closed at 48.5. The Eagles won the game 40-22 for a total of 62 points, meaning the game went over the projected total of 48.5.

Anyone who bet on the over won their bet, while those who bet on the under lost. With the vig at -110, a winning bet of $100 would win just under $92.

Why Over/Under Betting Is Popular

The ease of over/under betting is just one reason why it’s one of the most popular ways to wager on sporting events. Fans who want to bet on a game but have no vested interest in the outcome flock to the over/under since it doesn’t matter who wins.

It’s also a versatile wager with many other options besides the standard final combined score.

But you don’t just flip a coin to determine which side to bet. There are analytics and stats that go into setting the total, and those are areas a bettor can research to place a more informed wager.

How to Calculate Payouts for Over/Under Bets

Placing an over/under bet is simple, and it is pretty easy to calculate the payouts. When making a wager on the total that a sportsbook posts, you will see a number that is typically -110, meaning a $110 wager is required to win $100, though any amount can be wagered.

Oddsmakers are reluctant to change the total, but moving the vig serves the same purpose. The odds may change to -120 or higher if a lot of money comes in on a particular option. If one side of the bet is getting more action, then the vig can change to entice more money to the other side.

For example, if the number drops to -105, a successful bet wins $100 on a $105 wager. Most sportsbooks offer a betting odds calculator to determine potential winnings for all bet types.

Key Strategies for Over/Under Betting

As with every bet you place on a sporting event, it helps to have some background on the teams and players involved. That’s no different when it comes to over/under wagers. Researching the clubs allows bettors to potentially pick up trends that could give them an advantage.

If one team is high scoring and its opponent is below average defensively, there’s a strong chance that points will be scored.

Also, monitor line movement. A change in the total could mean bettors are favoring one side.

Analyzing Offensive & Defensive Trends

With advanced analytics becoming a bigger part of sports, bettors can also use statistics to make more informed wagers. Crunching the numbers doesn’t guarantee a win, but there’s a higher chance of success in the long run.

If a team plays at a fast pace, it has more opportunities on offense, increasing the likelihood of scoring more points.

The opposite is also true. An example is an NFL team that runs the football the majority of the time tends to chew up the clock with fewer points being scored.

Impact of Weather & Game Conditions

Analyzing matchups is huge, but weather conditions play a role in any outdoor game — particularly football. Rain and snow will definitely impact the total and, eventually, how the game unfolds. This is true in both the NFL and college football.

Teams adjust their game plan for adverse conditions, usually being more conservative in their approach, trending the game to a lower score. Meanwhile, better conditions with no wind and warmer temperatures tend to yield more points.

Over/Under Betting in Different Sports

Just about every major sport that has two teams competing to a final points-based outcome will have an over/under.

With points plentiful in the NBA, the totals will be higher than in an MLB contest. And sports like soccer or hockey, where scoring is minimal, there’s a standard over/under. In most soccer matches, the total is 2.5, while in the NHL it’s 5.5.

Football: NFL & College Football Totals

Knowing how a team plays and its roster are key in football.

Many teams like to play fast, and no player has a greater impact on the team’s performance than the quarterback. Combine those two, and you have an offense that can score points.

There are stats to consider besides just how many points a team scores per game.

The number of plays can indicate the tempo, with more possessions creating more scoring chances. It’s no coincidence that the best teams at any level have a great signal-caller. On defense, how many yards per play a team allows is a sign of how good the unit is.

Basketball: NBA & College Basketball Over/Under

When evaluating basketball teams, the per-game numbers are not always a good indication.

Certain teams go fast while others like to slow the pace. If a team plays with tempo, it also gives the opponent more possessions, which oftentimes translates to more points.

The three-point shot has become the biggest weapon, causing totals to soar. Teams keep up with the increased over/under by attempting and making more three-point baskets.

Efficiency ratings should be studied to determine whether a certain matchup for your team benefits them offensively or defensively.

Baseball: MLB Totals (Over/Under Runs)

Betting the total in baseball is more exciting than sitting through a nine-inning game to see who wins, which is why it’s a popular wager.

No player impacts a baseball game more than the pitcher, so studying mound matchups is important. Starting pitchers are influential in the number of runs scored, with oddsmakers emphasizing the matchup between starters when setting the line; however, with innings decreasing for starters, an effective bullpen is more of an indicator.

Also, consider a player’s history against a certain team to uncover matchups that could work in your favor. And certain ballparks tend to be “hitter friendly” yards, leading to a higher number of runs scored.