Line Movement Tracking: How to Master Betting Line Changes

When betting on sporting events, you need to get used to line movements because they could substantially impact whether your bet wins or loses.

Betting lines, also known as odds, consist of the moneyline, point spread, and total (over/under), and they are not static; rather, they can and almost always move.

There are different reasons why a betting line moves, and understanding how to read the odds and how they shift is critical for making more informed wagers that could potentially assist in a greater profit margin.

What Is Line Movement in Sports Betting?

Through extensive research and in-depth analysis, sportsbooks establish betting lines for sporting events. The numbers represent the probability of a particular outcome for that event and are designed by bookmakers to bring in equal money on both sides.

If one team is heavily wagered with a large handle, the line will move to encourage more action on the other side, thus limiting the book's liability. Major announcements, like an injury to a key player, will also spark line movement.

If you can read line movement influenced by sharp bettors, it's a smart play, as sharps are professionals and likely have insight that casual bettors don’t.

Types of Line Movements

Public Line Movement: Squares often back the favorite and are biased toward the more popular teams, like the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys or MLB’s New York Yankees. When a large number of casual bettors back one side, sportsbooks will move the line to make the other team more appealing, thus balancing their risk.

Sharp Line Movement: It’s not always easy to identify, but betting lines move based on the influence of sharp bettors. Sharps typically prefer betting NFL games early, so a significant shift after hitting the board is a sign of smart money. The line moving in the opposite direction of public wagers is another sign of sharp line movement.

Reverse Line Movement: When one team is getting most of the action, but the line moves in their favor. Sharps will place fewer bets with larger amounts of money, which impacts the lines because sportsbooks respect sharps.

How to Read Line Movement: Step-by-Step Guide

Understanding how and why line movement occurs is a big step toward becoming a successful sports bettor.

A change in odds can be attributed to many factors, and understanding why the shift happened can help you make smarter bets and identify potential high-value betting opportunities.

The objective of tracking line movement is to get the most favorable odds for the team you want to back.

Monitor Opening and Closing Lines

This is one part of the betting process that separates the sharps from the squares.

Casual bettors will throw down on a team, taking the odds available and then waiting for the game to be played; however, by comparing where the line initially opened to where it closed, you can see how the market reacted and find out if you got a better price than the final number. You bet a team at -4.5, and the line closed at -5.5; you got a better number, indicating a value bet.

Use Line Movement Tools and Apps

Tools are available to help sports bettors track and evaluate line movement, helping spot value bets where one team might be over or undervalued.

Understanding line movement trends and patterns can help you know when to place a bet for the best possible odds. They can also help disclose where smart money is being wagered. And as we said earlier, following the wise guys is a good strategy.

It’s called "gambling" and not "winning," so risk is always involved, but using the line movement tools to supplement your betting strategies can potentially help you earn a few more bucks with winning tickets.

Identify Key Timing for Line Movement

Timing is kind of a big deal when you're betting on the NFL since lines surface up to a week before game time, whereas odds for the NBA, NHL, and MLB won’t hit the board until the night before or the day of a game.

Significant early line movement indicates sharp bettors are at work, identifying value picks with mispriced odds. Middle-of-the-week shifts are likely a reaction to team news, such as injuries or suspensions to key players. Late line movement can be a response to a surge of public betting, a change to a team’s lineup, or more smart money, if the sportsbook raises the betting limit.

Types of Bets Affected by Line Movement

Any bet with odds can be affected by line movement. Odds are the perceived probability of an outcome for that event, but they are fluid and can change due to factors such as betting patterns, team updates, and, for games played outside, weather.

For better value on a bet, it’s a wise strategy to track where the line moves.

Spread Betting

The probability of a team winning a specific game could change if a star player gets injured. Also, if the same team is thought to be undervalued at -3, it could get plenty of action, forcing sportsbooks to move the point spread to -3.5 or -4 to increase the amount of money backing the other side.

Books don’t like crossing key numbers in the NFL, so the odds on the spread (vig) could instead change, making the favorite less desirable.

Moneyline Betting

Remember, a moneyline bet is on the outright winner of a contest, so the heavily favored team is going to have shorter odds.

If that team is getting plenty of action at the betting window, the odds will likely shorten, meaning a smaller payout on a winning bet.

Say the Chiefs are -200 to open but the line moves to -250 at kickoff, there’s a difference of $10 on a $100 wager. On the other hand, an underdog with little action could see their odds grow, offering a higher payout for a win.

Over/Under (Total) Betting

Similar to line movement on the point spread, but directly related to the total number of points, goals, or runs estimated to be scored by both sides combined.

A lot of action on the over could force the number to rise, making it less likely that the over is a winner. And if the under is getting most of the play, the estimated number could decrease, making the over a more appealing bet.

Parlays and Teasers

Tracking line movement for a parlay is important since there are multiple bets on a single ticket. And one loss makes the entire parlay a loser.

Identifying line moves that work in your favor not only improves your chances of winning a parlay, but it could also increase a potential payout.

With a teaser bet, the spread or total is adjusted, making it easier to win. Line movement can still affect a teaser, though, with any shift impacting the overall odds.

Line Movement Examples

Line movement has a profound impact on the most popular sport in America, with plenty of time between NFL games to decipher what exactly is happening.

With football in general, and the NFL in particular, being the most wagered-upon sport in the country, tracking line movement can be helpful.

NFL Spread Movement Example

Let's take an NFL game between Atlanta and New Orleans as an example.

Atlanta opened at -4.5, getting 75% of the action. By kickoff, the line dropped to Atlanta -3, suggesting smart money was on New Orleans. The same game with the same opening odds, but Atlanta was -5 at game time, is an indication that public money forced the move.

The opening line is the closest to true probability before getting infected with different wagers. Because of this, the sharps usually bet early.

NBA Total Movement Example

With NBA teams playing three or four games a week, we don’t see the amount of movement we do in the NFL, but it’s there and worth tracking for potentially better results.

Golden State opened -5 for a game against Dallas, but on the morning of the game, Stephen Curry was doubtful due to an injury. With bettors backing Dallas due to the news, the line moves to Golden State -2.5. With a premier scorer possibly sidelined, there’s a good chance the total would shift lower.