How to Build a Sports Betting Model That Actually Works

If there were a sports betting model that actually beat the odds with regularity, you would never know about it, or it would have driven the sportsbooks into bankruptcy. That is not to say that you should not try to learn how to create a sports betting model.

Just understand that any model you build should be a point of reference rather than pure gospel that is to be taken without question. So, when you plan a sports betting model, it should be something that you can use as a main tool, but also as one tool within the toolshed.

The most sobering fact to consider when learning how to build a sports betting model is that oddsmakers use these models too. In fact, professional gamblers often cross over to the dark side and help the leading sportsbooks create their own models based on what the sharpest gamblers in the world have built.

Ideally, the best sports betting models deliver pertinent information that can be used to isolate the most probable results at the most advantageous prices.

What Is a Sports Betting Model? (And Why It Matters)

When you’re learning how to build a sports betting model, you’ll want to develop a method that will uncover the highest betting value, best prices, weakest odds, and the highest level of probability.

Bettors who create successful sports betting models develop algorithms that make sense and are pertinent. Those who fail may have good intentions and work tirelessly at the task, but they ultimately get bogged down in minutiae.

There is a famous guide to building a successful sports betting model: Keep It Simple, Stupid, AKA the “KISS Theory.”

Remember, you are not trying to split the atom; instead, you are simply trying to find an edge to make money betting on sports and develop a method of finding winning wagers.

Like investing in the stock market, the most successful sports betting models use simple, understandable formulas with only a few key fundamentals. Ironically, the more complex a method becomes, the more likely it is to fail.

Best Types of Betting Models for Beginners

Before you begin your quest to build a sports betting model, you must remember that nothing is infallible and nobody is perfect.

Power rankings, statistics, trends, injury factors, player value, matchups, recent form, lineup and coaching changes, weather (and all other factors) are important to consider. Still, none of them can consistently carry a wager alone.

Power ratings are an important starting point for creating a sports betting model. These ratings are easily accessible on multiple websites.

When you evaluate power ratings, remember that they were created by humans or with formulas (also created by humans) and come with all the biases and flaws that go into them. Thus, while power ratings are an important guide, they are hardly a tablet from Moses.

A good example of how power ratings alone are not pure gospel comes from the Super Bowl of February 2025, when the Kansas City Chiefs were 1.5-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles. A good portion of that betting line was built by power ratings, yet the Chiefs were annihilated 40-22 because the wrong team was favored, and the power ratings were far off the mark.

What you want to do with those power ratings is to fine-tune them and include your rankings. From there, you want to learn to set your betting lines before you check the ones released by the sportsbooks. When your betting line finds actual lines that are vastly different, you may have found a good bet or one to avoid.

In many cases, the casual market may have set the price far beyond what it should have been. And that is where you find the best chance to beat the line.

Ultimately, you want to build power rating models and price values that isolate those discrepancies.

Step-by-Step: How to Build Your First Betting Model

When you first begin learning how to build a sports betting model, choose a sport to focus on.

Although the same principles apply to all sports, for our purposes, let’s focus on the National Football League,

Core data points that you must consider when planning a sports betting model include player metrics and injury reports. Next, you must build projections based on the prices you create compared to the actual bookmaker odds.

Then, compare your projection to the sportsbook odds to calculate the expected value. The greater the difference, the more value your sports betting model has isolated.

Data points to consider are the large gaps between one team’s strengths and their opponent’s weaknesses.

For example, when the Chiefs are going up against a weak defensive team, it makes sense that Kansas City will score more points than usual. But can Kansas City’s opponent bring enough offense to offset that? Also, will key players be excluded from the lineup? If so, that will change the power rating formulas and the meaning of the offensive and defensive metrics.

Additionally, weather can be a key factor in altering the data. If Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins play at Kansas City in the freezing cold, your betting model must account for those conditions.

When you decide how to make a sports betting model, it must be flexible within certain parameters based on continuously changing dynamics and factors of any matchup.

Tools to Build a Sports Betting Model (Even Without Coding Skills)

When preparing to build a sports betting model, tools such as Excel, Google Sheets, Python, Sports Reference, and others are essential to make your job easier. With such tools, you can easily alter your formulas and adjust data.

Additionally, you can enter different formulas for the same matchup and determine if the outcomes with different data weights are vastly different. In some cases, how you weigh varied factors could alter your decision on a bet. In other cases, you may discover that the impact is less than you initially thought.

Such tools are not only fun to use but can be incredibly valuable in developing the right methodology.

Also, you must use your tools to save different sports betting models you’ve developed to compare which models produce the most profits.

How to Track and Improve Your Betting Model Over Time

When it comes to successful sports gambling, you should continuously improve your models. That goes for sportsbooks and professional gamblers alike. Just as sports are constantly changing and evolving, so is sports gambling.

Consider the evolution of each sports league and how it has changed over the years. Strategies that used to be innovative eventually became outdated. With that in mind, you must judiciously track your results and pinpoint trends of increased success or failure when learning how to build a sports betting model.

Your sports betting model must also effectively adjust to market shifts. We now operate in an era of continuously changing market prices, and your sports betting model must have the built-in flexibility to adapt to intangibles such as late information. Models must also track late moves based on social media trend hype.

Ultimately, your model is like a football coach's playbook. It must be your ultimate point of reference, but flexible enough to successfully adapt to changing dynamics.