Moneyline Betting: A Comprehensive Guide

Moneyline bets are one of the easiest and most popular bets to place.

There are two possible outcomes, with bettors picking a team or individual athlete to win a game or match. It’s a simple pick-the-winner wager.

In some cases, a third outcome will result in a draw or tie, which also boosts odds.

Moneyline odds determine a favorite and underdog, with the favorite having a higher implied probability of winning the game or match.

Introduction to Moneyline Betting

Moneyline betting is simple and easy to understand, making it a preferred method for novice and experienced sports bettors.

But what does moneyline mean? The term represents the payout for a winning bet. There are differences between teams and individual athletes, and moneyline odds are assigned to each team or individual to even the money coming in on both sides and to reduce the risk for sportsbooks.

Typically, moneyline odds are presented in American odds format with a negative (-) number representing the favorite and a positive (+) number assigned to the underdog.

Due to several factors, the favorite has a higher probability, or a greater chance, of winning, meaning a smaller payout on a successful bet.

The underdog is less likely to win, but the payout for an upset is much larger. A moneyline bet is the least complicated since it’s based solely on the outcome of the competition.

Understanding Moneyline Odds

To fully grasp the concept of moneyline betting, you'll need to understand moneyline odds.

Oddsmakers separate teams into two categories: favorites and underdogs. The favored team is given a negative number and the underdog a positive number.

The favorite has a higher probability of winning, and the underdog is more likely to lose. Games that are expected to be close will have a shorter gap between the numbers.

Moneyline odds determine the amount a bettor will win on a successful bet.

Positive Moneyline Odds

A team with positive moneyline odds can quickly be identified as the betting underdog.

This can be shown as Team A +200. Teams or individuals with positive moneyline odds have a lower probability of winning the game/match, so the payout is greater than the original wager amount.

If Team A at +200 wins the game, the payout on a $100 wager is $200. The higher the positive moneyline odds are, the higher the potential payout. But it also means a lowered implied probability of winning.

Negative Moneyline Odds

Negative moneyline odds are assigned to the team or individual expected to win. In this case, the odds are shorter and more expensive.

An example of negative moneyline odds is Team B -120. In this case, wagering on the team that’s expected to win will cost $120 to win $100.

Shorter moneyline betting odds mean a greater probability of that team winning. College football is a good example of negative moneyline odds.

Ohio State was -100000 in a game against Marshall, meaning a wager of $100,000 would pay just $100. In this case, there is no value in betting on the favorite.

Calculating Payouts for Moneyline Bets

Calculating a winning moneyline bet payout isn’t as complicated as it might seem.

American odds, which are used for moneyline bets, are based on a $100 wager. Bettors can risk any amount, but for the sake of determining payouts, this is the method.

With odds of +150, a moneyline underdog would net a $150 profit on a $100 wager.

To win $100 on a moneyline favorite, you need to bet the amount of the negative odds. For instance, Team A -200 would require a $200 wager to win $100.

Most sportsbooks offer an odds calculator to easily determine how much can be won on different odds and wagers.

For a bet other than $100, use the following formula: for an underdog, divide the wager by 100, then multiply the result by the moneyline odd; for a favorite, divide 100 by the odds, then multiply the result by the bet.

Strategies for Moneyline Betting

Moneyline betting is an easy way to wager on sporting events, but for long-term success, beware of the size of the moneylines wagered on.

A $100 wager on a -250 favorite makes only $40. If you were to win three of five similar bets, the overall result would be a loss of $80.

And, after all, the goal is to win money. Odds on the same sporting event aren't the same at sportsbooks, so shop around to find the best value.

Also, use personal knowledge of a team or league to your advantage by wagering on familiar sports.

Most importantly, be wise with your bankroll. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Assessing Value

Through your own research and analysis, you'll find that if the odds of a specific outcome are greater than the odds implied by the sportsbook, the wager has value.

With so many markets on the board, effectively handicapping every game/match isn't easy.

The outcomes are also not 100% determined, so value picks are out there. Understanding betting odds is key to making a more informed wager and can also assist in finding value bets.

Bankroll Management

Properly managing your bankroll is important for long-term success and to maximize your sports betting experience.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and stick to a system that works for you.

Setting daily or weekly spending limits (depending on the level of participation) allows bettors to make multiple wagers while staying within their budget.

It’s easy to chase money when losses occur, and it’s easy to wager more after winning a few bets, so it's important to keep emotions intact.

Understanding Implied Probability

We calculate the implied probability of a likely outcome by taking the odds for a specific game and converting them into a percentage.

For Team A +200, the implied probability is 100 divided by odds + 100, then multiplied by 100.

Using this formula, Team A has a 33.3 percent chance of winning; for negative odds, use the formula: odds divided by odds + 100 multiplied by 100. At -300, the implied probability for Team B is 75%. The percentage also factors in the cost of doing business at the sportsbook.

Moneyline Betting in Different Sports

Moneyline betting is prevalent in nearly every sport, though it tends to be more popular in lower-scoring sports. We often see moneyline wagering in soccer, baseball, and ice hockey, as well as individual one-on-one sports like tennis and boxing.

With more points and the chance for a larger margin of victory, spread and total betting are popular in games like football and basketball.

Football and Basketball

Betting the spread and/or total in football and basketball games tends to yield better odds, and with points scored in larger amounts, it makes those markets a popular option; however, moneyline odds also still remain popular.

A betting line for an NFL game could appear confusing with more numbers, but they are clearly defined with the spread, total, and moneyline.

Also, spread and total bets are given a second set of odds oftentimes at -110, which is the take the bookie gets for placing the bet.

Baseball and Hockey

Given the relatively low scoring in ice hockey and baseball, betting the moneyline is a preferred method. Again, though, options on the spread and total are available.

With about 30% of Major League Baseball games decided by a single run, those games generate a high amount of moneyline wagers.

The formula for moneyline odds in these sports remains the same, and finding value gives bettors a chance at turning a profit.

Combat Sports (Boxing, MMA)

Individual sports like boxing, MMA, and tennis will present athletes with moneyline odds. The rules are the same with the expected winner given negative (-) odds and the likely loser displayed with positive (+) odds.

These are typically stand-alone moneyline bets with props available for round winner, method of victory in combat sports, and set wins and exact set scores in tennis.