Betting Strategy Guide

Futures Betting Explained: How It Works, Odds & Strategy

There are different ways to wager on sporting events, and one that takes time and patience is a futures bet.

As the name suggests, the outcome of the wager isn’t determined until sometime down the road — most often at the end of a season.

Futures can involve both teams and players. Common examples include betting on a team to win a championship or a player to win a major award.

What Is Future Betting?

A futures bet is a wager on an outcome that will be decided at a later date.

The most common examples include:

A team winning a league championship (e.g., Super Bowl winner)
A player winning an award such as MVP
A team’s season win total (over/under)

Sportsbooks open these markets before the season begins and keep them available throughout the year. Odds continuously shift depending on performance, injuries, and public betting action.

How Future Betting Works

Futures odds are presented in list format.

Teams or players with the highest probability of winning are listed first, followed by longer shots further down the board.

You can place a futures bet at any time while the market is open. Once you lock in your wager, those odds are fixed — no matter how the season unfolds afterward.

Fixed Odds That Shift Over Time

While your bet locks in at the posted number, the odds themselves are constantly moving.

Several factors cause these shifts:

Team performance
Player performance
Injuries
Trades and roster changes
Public betting trends

Example:

Chiefs listed at +500 to win the Super Bowl

Patrick Mahomes suffers a season-ending injury

Chiefs’ odds jump significantly

Or:

Lions open at +1300

They dominate early and clinch their division

Odds shorten dramatically

Price movement is the heartbeat of the futures market.

Understanding why it moves is just as important as picking the right team.

Risk vs. Reward in Futures

Most futures wagers carry plus-money odds, meaning the payout is higher than your stake if the bet wins.

The earlier you place a bet, the larger the potential return — but also the greater the risk.

At the start of a season:

Outcomes are less predictable
Injuries and performance swings are unknown
The house edge is larger (e.g., 1 in 32 teams wins the Super Bowl)

As the season progresses:

Probability becomes clearer
Odds often become shorter
Value opportunities may shrink

Futures betting rewards patience, but uncertainty is always part of the equation.

Popular Future Betting Markets

Futures markets vary by sport, but the most popular include:

Championship winner

Division winner

Conference winner

MVP and major awards

Season win totals

Even over/under win totals — though structured differently — are considered futures because they are decided at season’s end.

Team Futures

If you believe strongly in a team’s long-term outlook, a futures wager can offer stronger value than betting individual games.

Championship markets are the most popular team futures.

For example:

In the NFL, you are choosing one of 32 teams to win the Super Bowl.

Division markets reduce the field — typically to four teams — which lowers payout but improves probability.

The fewer the possible outcomes, the smaller the reward.

Player Futures

Player futures focus on individual accolades.

The MVP award is the most popular across leagues, but sportsbooks also offer odds for:

Rookie of the Year
Defensive Player of the Year
Cy Young (MLB)
Best pitcher awards

MLB is unique because it awards honors separately in the American and National League, effectively doubling futures opportunities.

Superstar players tend to attract the most betting action, but value can exist further down the board.

Milestone & Special Futures

Sportsbooks also release markets when a player approaches a major milestone.

Bettors may wager on:

Whether a record will be broken
When it will happen
Against which opponent

For example, during the 2024–25 NHL season, Alex Ovechkin chased the career regular-season goals record.

Tennis and golf also offer long-range markets on major tournaments months before they begin, creating early-value opportunities.

Future Betting Strategies

You should consider a few factors to increase the chances of success when betting on the futures market. First, research the teams and leagues to make a more informed wager.

Also, when teams that are expected to have a good season start slow, their odds could lengthen, adding more value to their situation. Like fans, sportsbooks often overreact to situations, allowing for potentially favorable situations.

Timing Your Bets

Timing directly impacts payout potential.

Placing a bet before the season begins can lock in the highest possible return — but it also carries the most uncertainty.

Waiting allows more information to develop, though odds may shorten as probability becomes clearer.

Example:

Team opens at +5000 before the season.
Midseason record: 32–9.
Odds drop significantly.

Early bettors secured maximum value.
Late bettors accepted smaller returns with reduced risk.

There is no perfect time to bet — only the right price relative to probability.

Hedging Future Bets

Hedging becomes relevant once your original wager increases in value.

As the field narrows — for example, entering playoffs or championship rounds — placing a bet on the opposite side can reduce risk or secure profit.

Hedging can:

Lock in guaranteed profit
• Reduce overall exposure
• Secure partial return

However, it also lowers the maximum payout of your original position. Hedging decisions should be calculated, not emotional.

Researching Schedules & Trends

Long-term wagers require context.

Roster changes, midseason trades, and injury updates can immediately affect futures pricing. Schedule strength also matters — a favorable stretch can inflate win totals, while a difficult run can hurt positioning.

When the Lakers traded for Luka Doncic during the 2024–25 NBA season, their futures odds shortened quickly — reflecting a shift in expectations.

What to monitor throughout the season:

Injury reports
• Trade activity
• Schedule difficulty
• Market overreactions

Recognizing these changes early can improve entry price and long-term value.

Future Betting in Different Sports

Most sports leagues with teams competing for a championship offer a futures market.

While the structure of wagers may vary by sport, the core concept remains the same — betting on an outcome that will be decided later in the season.

In most leagues, markets include overall champions, division winners, conference winners, and playoff qualification odds.

Individual awards are also widely available.

Futures are not limited to regular-season outcomes. Many extend into postseason play.

Football (NFL & College Football)

Football’s popularity has helped make it one of the deepest futures markets available.

Common options include:

Win totals
• Division winners
• Conference champions
• Super Bowl winners

Individual awards such as MVP are also available in the NFL.

In college football, major futures markets include the National Champion and Heisman Trophy winner.

Because of roster turnover and preseason uncertainty, prices can shift significantly early in the year.

Basketball (NBA & College Basketball)

Basketball offers extensive futures options at both the professional and collegiate levels.

NBA markets mirror the NFL structure, including championship odds, conference winners, and division titles. Individual award markets — including MVP and Rookie of the Year — attract consistent betting interest.

Expanded playoff formats have also increased futures participation by keeping more teams mathematically alive deeper into the season.

In college basketball, bettors can wager on regular-season conference champions, tournament champions, and the national championship.

Baseball

Major League Baseball stands out for its individual award depth.

Both the American League and National League offer separate markets for:

MVP
Cy Young
Rookie of the Year

This effectively doubles opportunities compared to other leagues.

Changes to the playoff format have also expanded the number of teams with postseason paths, increasing championship futures interest throughout the season.