Future Betting: A Comprehensive Guide

There are different ways to wager on sporting events, and one that takes time and patience is a futures bet.

Like the name suggests, the outcome of the bet isn’t determined until sometime down the road, most often at the end of a season.

The bets can involve both teams and players, and it is common for teams to win a season championship and players to win a specific award.

What Is Future Betting?

The outcome of a future bet is determined at a later date.

The most common type of future is on a team winning a league championship, like the NFL’s Super Bowl, or a player winning an award such as MVP.

Several markets are open for both team and individual futures in most sports. The markets open before the start of the season and continue throughout the year, though odds shift depending on how a team or player is performing.

How Future Betting Works

Futures odds are presented in list form, most often ranked with the team/player having the best chance of winning listed first, down to the team/player with the least likely chance of winning.

Bets can be placed at any time as long as a team/player is on the board. When a futures bet is placed, the odds listed at that time are locked in regardless of what happens throughout the season.

Fixed Odds That Shift Over Time

Odds on future bets are always shifting, with a number of variables responsible for movement. Team performance is one reason, but the biggest cause is injury.

If the Chiefs are +500 to win the Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes sustains a season-ending injury in Week 5, the Chiefs’ odds would increase dramatically.

Also, if the Lions were +1300 to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season with the best record and won their division by Week 15, their odds would be less favorable.

Risk vs. Reward in Futures

A futures bet will almost always have plus odds, meaning a larger payout should the bet be successful.

The earlier futures odds hit the board, the better the return, though factors dictate a shift in odds over the course of a campaign.

The risk is always greater at the beginning of a season, and while the probability of a certain outcome takes shape as the season progresses, the odds can become less favorable.

There are certain factors bettors can’t predict, such as injuries and struggling players. Also, with the Super Bowl winner a 1 in 32 proposition, the house has a big advantage.

Popular Future Betting Markets

Some of the most popular futures bets are on which team will capture the championship that season.

That can also be broken down to segments, like a division or conference winner. Individual league awards wagers are favorites among bettors.

Another popular wager is the over/under season wins for a team. This is presented differently, but is still considered a future bet since it’s decided at the end of the season.

Team Futures

If you believe in the long-term success of a team, then it’s more advantageous to make a futures bet rather than game wagers. Odds are typically more favorable, especially before the season starts.

Betting on a team to win a league championship is the most popular team future and has the most favorable odds.

In the NFL, the bet is on one of 32 teams to win. There are other team futures, but odds shrink since fewer teams are involved. A wager can be made on an NFL team winning its division that has only four teams involved.

Player Futures

Everybody likes to see superstars perform, so why not bet on them? That’s exactly what’s at stake when making a player's futures bet.

The biggest honor for a player in any league is the MVP, and, of course, there are odds for that award. Betting markets are available for any league that hands out individual awards at the end of a season. MLB has the unique distinction of honoring players from both leagues with separate awards for MVP and best pitcher.

Milestone & Special Futures

You can expect a market to open whenever a significant milestone is about to be reached in any league.

Or, you could wager on a date or a particular opponent against whom he’d break the record. During the 2024-25 NHL season, for example, Alex Ovechkin was chasing the career record for regular-season goals scored.

Professional tennis and golf host four of what are considered to be the biggest season tournaments, spread throughout the year.

Odds for those tournaments are released well ahead of the scheduled start date, allowing bettors to take advantage of favorable odds.

Future Betting Strategies

You should consider a few factors to increase the chances of success when betting on the futures market. First, research the teams and leagues to make a more informed wager.

Also, when teams that are expected to have a good season start slow, their odds could lengthen, adding more value to their situation. Like fans, sportsbooks often overreact to situations, allowing for potentially favorable situations.

Timing Your Bets

Timing a future bet depends on what team you’re betting on.

The best price isn’t always before a season starts, especially for championship-caliber teams. With high expectations, a team will have shorter odds at the start. Should that club get off to a slow start, odds will shift, making them a more favorable pick when the price gets higher.

Now, let’s say the Brooklyn Nets are +5000 to win the NBA title, and they finish the first half at 32-9. It’s safe to assume their odds will tumble, meaning they would have a larger payout for winning the title at the beginning of the season.

Hedging Future Bets

A common strategy in the futures market is to hedge bets as the list of contenders for a particular category begins to shrink.

Hedging a bet is placing a wager opposite the original wager to ensure some payout regardless of how the event finishes. Depending on the odds, bettors can guarantee a positive payout when hedging a bet, though losses are still possible.

Researching Schedules & Trends

It’s always a good strategy to conduct research when betting on the futures market. Roster changes impact odds, be it during the offseason or in the middle of a playing year.

During the 2024-25 NBA season, the Lakers traded for Luka Doncic, and their futures odds shrank.

Also, looking at a team’s schedule can help formulate a betting plan for a team or player. A softer schedule typically leads to more wins and better stats, though a team’s performance isn’t defined until a season has progressed.

Future Betting in Different Sports

Most sports leagues with a group of teams playing for a championship will have a futures market. The type of team and individual wagers varies but typically includes an overall champion.

Most also offer odds for division winners, conference winners, and teams to qualify for the playoffs.

Any individual accolade handed out by a league is also available to bet on. Futures aren’t limited to just the regular season.

Football (NFL & College Football)

The ease of betting on football has helped make it America’s most popular sport. An extensive futures market in the NFL is part of the reason.

Win totals, division winners, conference champions, and Super Bowl champs are just part of the market.

Individual futures are available for every award the league has, including MVP. The biggest college football futures include the National champion and Heisman Trophy winner.

Basketball (NBA & College Basketball)

There is no shortage of futures options in basketball.

Increasing the number of teams involved in the postseason only made the NBA more attractive to futures bettors, with markets similar to the NFL for team wagers.

In college hoops, you can make a wager on the regular season conference champion and tournament champ, along with the national championship futures wager.

Baseball

The only major sport that hands out individual awards in each league makes MLB a favorite of future bettors.

Both the American League and National League have MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year markets, doubling the chances of hitting a futures winner.

Changes to the playoff format have also increased the number of teams with a chance at hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy at season’s end.

Hockey

Skating the best regular season record means little when it comes to winning the Stanley Cup, making NHL futures a crapshoot. No other major sport is as balanced; even lower-seeded teams have a chance of winning in the NHL.

Standard futures are available for teams and players.