Fade the Public Betting Strategy: Why Going Against the Crowd Works

When it comes to betting on sporting events, plenty of different strategies are available to help fatten the pocketbook.

One of the older and more popular strategies is “fading the public,” or betting against what most are betting on.

Since games and events are inherently unpredictable, there is no strategy that guarantees winning or that is too good to be true. Yet, betting against the public has advantages and can be profitable if worked correctly.

And you can’t fade the public without first knowing what the public is doing.

What Is the Fade the Public Strategy in Sports Betting?

In order to implement the “fade the public” strategy, we must first identify who the public is and what they’re doing.

Bettors are placed in one of two categories: casual bettors, or folks who throw down a chunk of change on their favorite team every so often, who are referred to as “squares,” and the more experienced bettors, those who gamble for a living and have a proven record of winning, who are referred to as “sharps.”

The public is typically squares, who tend to make wagers based on emotion or popularity rather than research.

A lot of money on one side of a bet can force the odds to shift, and since sportsbooks want to limit their liability, they create value on the other side of the bet.

Even a half-point on a spread can make all the difference, and picking up on it adds value to your “fade the public” wager.

Why Sharp Bettors Bet Against the Public

There are several reasons why sharp bettors fade the public. The biggest reason is that sharps are more knowledgeable.

Sharps gamble on sporting events to make a long-term profit. Squares wager on sports as entertainment and to win gas or beer money.

Research helps sharp bettors to make more informed wagers, exploiting lines and odds that have moved due to an influx of public action on one team.

Experienced gamblers work to find value bets. With a long-term goal of turning a profit, sharps are more disciplined in their approach to betting, researching teams and leagues, and removing emotion from the equation.

Lines are oftentimes adjusted based on how the public views teams. Popular teams will get more action when they compete simply because of who they are, which can affect the odds.

When to Fade the Public: Key Signals to Watch

Fading the public doesn’t work on every event. Sometimes the action on a particular game is so small that the needle doesn’t even move.

Also, fading the public is not a blanket strategy that can be used on every game, and smart bettors know which games to target to try and gain an advantage.

When betting on the NFL, it’s most often worth targeting standalone primetime games since they are nationally televised and feature visible teams. That excitement creates value in fading the public with sportsbooks shifting lines due to increased action.

Teams with a large fan base and teams that get extensive media coverage also tend to get a higher betting volume. The bigger the game, the more attention it’s going to get. A good example would be the Super Bowl.

You can always check the betting percentages of any game to get insight into where the public is headed. Many online sites provide this information, allowing you to see which side the public is betting on.

If 75% of the action is on one team, fading the public could be a smart play.

Fade the Public: Strategy Risks and Limitations

If the public consistently won, sportsbooks would go out of business. Instead, the books are flourishing with the money made from casual bettors.

So, if the public loses a majority of its bets, the logical conclusion is that betting opposite the public will win more consistently.

That’s the idea, and it does work, just not all the time. There are situations where fading the public just isn’t an option.

For instance, a college football game between San Jose State and Central Michigan probably won’t get a lot of action, making the strategy useless. Also, there are times when the public gets it right and wins, meaning a public fade on that particular event is a loser.

Sharp bettors might be the cream of the sports gambling crop, but they only win around 60% of their bets.

Additionally, finding value bets to fade the public and bet like a sharp isn’t easy – it takes time and patience.

When fading the public, most casual bettors don’t have the time, don’t want to take the time, or simply have no desire to put in the work to find value.

Bet Smarter with Prime Sportsbook: Identify Public Vs. Sharp Action

As mentioned earlier, you can’t fade the public unless you know what the public is betting on.

In this case, you can follow the money to get an idea of whether a game is getting public action or sharp action. Knowing the difference can give you an edge.

Casual bettors will place a high volume of bets at lower amounts, while squares typically have higher sums and fewer bets.

There are verified trends among the public as well. This group more often backs favorites while also betting the over more often than the under. An abundance of public money on one side of a bet can have an impact, forcing sportsbooks to shift the odds to attract more bets on the other side. This is a clear indication of public action.

Sharp money often moves lines in the opposite direction of the public. Also, if the handle for a specific game is much larger than the bet percentage, you can trust the wise guys are at work. Early line movement, especially in college and pro football, is another indication of sharps in action.