Closing Line Value (CLV) in Sports Betting: Why It Matters More Than Wins

The closing line value in sports betting matters more than wins. At first, this statement seems contradictory, but a deeper dive reveals the old gambling adage to be true.

What is the closing line value? It’s simply the difference between the cost of a bet when it was placed and its value when the game begins.

At the onset of a gambling matchup, the oddsmakers will offer an opening line based on the abilities of the two teams in the matchup, measured against what the personnel making the line believe to be the public perception of the matchup.

The sportsbook wants equal betting action on both sides of the game to profit from the commission it charges gamblers. If the betting action splits evenly on both teams, the sportsbook profits from that “juice,” also known as “vig.”

But the closing can differ from the opening lines, often by a wide margin. Gamblers who can anticipate that difference before it happens and take advantage of it are the sharps and pros that all serious bettors aspire to become.

What Is Closing Line Value (CLV)?

Closing line value can be explained in two ways.

The most common and simplest explanation? It’s the difference between the odds a gambler received when he made his bet versus the odds he received at the closing line.

A second way to define closing line value is the price of the opening odds versus the price of the closing odds. The bigger the gap in the two prices, the more potential betting value there is for one of the two teams in the matchup.

Remember, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. If there is a substantial difference between the opening line and the line that a gambler got when he made his bet and the closing line, one of the two sides eventually loses value. At the same time, its opponent gains enhanced value.

If the Kansas City Chiefs opened as a 10-point favorite against the Denver Broncos but the line closed at Kansas City -13, there was a 3-point swing between the opening and closing lines.

The casual sector within the betting market likely bought into media hype about the Chiefs' superiority over Denver, which moved the line higher on Kansas City. Meanwhile, bargain hunters who could see that the opening line was too low on the Chiefs patiently waited for what they believed would be a price increase, thus sending additional points Denver’s way.

For those who jumped on the Chiefs -10 at the opening, they were able to win the bet in a 21-10 Chiefs victory. But for those who waited until the closing line of -13, they lost on the Chiefs, while the bargain shoppers who took Denver +13 at the close got paid.

Thus, this illustrates what the closing line value is all about.

Why Closing Line Value Is Critical for Profitable Betting

Nothing matters more than closing line value to a gambler who is serious about winning. With the house edge usually at 10% or greater, a smart gambler realizes he is already up against it before his first bet.

Therefore, paying too much for a bet is never acceptable. That is where the importance of the closing line value comes into play. Professional gamblers can spend their entire careers trying to determine methods of predicting closing line value.

If a bet loses because of a disadvantage in the difference between the opening and closing lines, this information may be useful to know after the fact, but it is also too late. Yes, gamblers can learn valuable but painful lessons about closing line value, but the goal is to develop the skills to isolate and exploit closing line value before it happens.

Sharps become sharps because they developed methods to find the closing line value when the opening line comes out. But those same sharps learned through losing why closing line value matters.

How to Calculate Closing Line Value Example

When you learn to calculate closing line value, you will be fascinated by the big line moves of several points between the opening and closing prices of the odds.

In a college football example, the masses may jump on the opening line of the Ohio State Buckeyes -31 over the Northwestern Wildcats. Ohio State is a blueblood power brand that has a cache with the casual sector. And there is no doubt that Ohio State has better players and depth than Northwestern.

Yet, Wise Guys know that the oddsmakers are fully cognizant of these facts and expect heavy activity on the Buckeyes. Hence, the sharps refuse to overpay on Ohio State. As the week goes on, the price on Ohio State increases to 36 points after social and sports media narratives drive the hype train that expects an Ohio State blowout win.

The closing line value advantage is Northwestern +36, with a 5-point swing over the original price. Wise Guys love that type of example on how to calculate the closing line value.

With an Ohio State win of 42-10, the sharps who took the 36 points were paid, while most of the squares who got in after the opening line of -31 paid too much and lost their bets.

How to Beat the Closing Line

Now we have reached the most important topic, which is how to beat the closing line. After all, there is no real closing line value after the fact.

To win bets with CLV, you must attain it before the fact. To attain closing line value for your wagers, you must track early betting, injuries, sports betting market sentiment, and the difference between sharp and square line movements.

Some of these factors are interrelated.

In our previous Chiefs vs. Broncos example, the Chiefs may attract significant early betting action fueled by branding. But if Patrick Mahomes is injured and said to be almost certain to either miss the game or play at far less than 100%, the social and sports media hype can run wild and influence line movements because of the effects on the betting market sentiment.

Such news creates narratives and social media trends that take on a life of their own. Thus, defining closing line value is often a reaction to how the masses overreact and overvalue certain teams, brands, or news, especially if news and narratives feed into preconceived perceptions.

In such cases, the closing line value can often be maximized.

CLV Vs. Actual Results: What If You're Not Winning?

When developing your methodology for closing line value, trial and error, and actual results will sometimes result in losses.

But that is not a reason to become discouraged. Learning how to calculate closing line value is an education that will have a huge payoff in the end, although not immediately.

The fact that you are trying to understand what the closing line value is takes precedence.

The more you stick with your efforts, study, and fine-tune your methods, the bigger the reward in the future. Like anything else in sports betting, success is much about being an eager student and learning to profit from losses.

Tools to Track CLV Automatically

It is extremely important to track closing line value results, and you can create tracking studies by logging bets manually, using apps like Betstamp. Many gamblers do both; what is most important is that you get it done.

Tracking records is like game tape for a football coach when assessing closing line value.

By reviewing your logs of bets to closing line value, you can learn how to assess why those line moves took place and what factors went into them. You can see how media narratives and the casual sector’s overreaction helped to create the closing line value.

Additionally, you can track the most popular public brands such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, and Dallas Cowboys related to line moves and how to calculate closing line value.

By contrast, tracking teams that the masses ignore also offer potential opportunities.