# NFL Week 4 Predictions: Odds, Best Bets & Preview

> Bet NFL Week 4 at Prime Sportsbook. Get weekly predictions, odds, best bets, key matchups, injury updates and betting insights.

Published 2026-09-30 · By [Phil Simon](https://www.primesportsbook.com/author/philsimon/)

Two of the NFL’s five unbeaten teams tangle in a crucial divisional matchup headlining the Week 4 **NFL season** schedule. The surprising Las Vegas Raiders matched their win total from a season ago beating New Orleans to improve to 3-0. The Raiders host Kansas City in a game that will determine which team takes control of the AFC West. Buffalo stayed undefeated with a comeback win over the Chargers and is the only AFC East team with a winning record. **NFL predictions** have the Bills covering the touchdown spread against division rival New England.

## **Featured NFL Games This Week**

The lineup of **NFL football games this week** features a few major early-season divisional showdowns along with the continuation of the league’s International Series. Five teams enter Week 4 undefeated with two of them facing each other for first place in the AFC West. With its recent playoff and Super Bowl success, Kansas City is viewed as the better team and opened as a 4.5-point road favorite on the [**NFL betting**](https://www.primesportsbook.com/sports/football/nfl/) line.

If the NFL awarded an MVP after three games Buffalo’s Josh Allen would be a runaway winner. Allen scored two more touchdowns in the 24-16 comeback win over the Chargers and leads the NFL with six rushing TDs. He’s also thrown for five scores and is the [**futures odds**](https://www.primesportsbook.com/betting-guides/future-betting/) favorite. Buffalo looks to stay unbeaten hosting AFC East rival New England as a 7-point **NFL betting line** favorite. The Week 4 slate opens with an old-fashioned AFC North battle between Pittsburgh and Cleveland. The Browns have won four straight at home in the series.

### **Matchups With the Biggest Storylines**

- The biggest surprise of the five unbeaten teams is Las Vegas. The Raiders matched their win total from last season winning their first three games and face a huge task at home against the Chiefs. Pulling off the upset would be a good sign. The Raiders last opened with four straight wins during the 2002 season when they reached the Super Bowl.
- A rare interconference matchup between Washington and Indianapolis typically wouldn’t get a lot of attention. However, this week the teams are playing across the pond as part of the International Series and they’re both coming off their first win of the season. The Colts stopped a nine-game losing streak with their 19-17 upset of Houston.
- Texas bragging rights are on the line in the Dallas at Houston matchup, but more importantly both teams need a win. For the second straight season the Texans are 0-3. They overcame that last season winning 12 of their final 14 games to reach the playoffs. The Cowboys will attempt to rebound from a devastating loss to Baltimore to get back to .500. Houston opened as a slim 2.5-point favorite on the [**football betting**](https://www.primesportsbook.com/sports/football/nfl/) line.

### **Games That Could Impact the Playoff Picture**

- Historically less than three percent of teams that start 0-3 rally to qualify for the postseason leaving the Chargers, Texans and Buccaneers in a tough spot. A loss this week would effectively end any postseason hopes for those clubs. Tennessee and Miami are also winless, but they are not considered playoff contenders.
- Several **NFL football games this week** feature division matchups that will directly affect the standings. Both the Chiefs and Raiders enter their game at 3-0 with the winner taking control of the AFC West.
- The Patriots will try to stop Josh Allen and the Bills from grabbing a stranglehold on the AFC East. Buffalo has more wins than the rest of the division combined and looks like the best team in the conference and the NFL.

## **NFL Picks & Predictions**

The wave of quarterback injuries this season continued last week when Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield injured his thumb. He joins a long list of QBs missing time early in the season. **NFL predictions today** swung away from the Bucs with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels taking over as the starter. Betting models are also backing the Saints in their NFC South duel with Atlanta in the 20th anniversary of the Superdome reopening after Hurricane Katrina. And the Saints have been solid with a couple of head-scratching calls going against them in their two losses.

### **Predicted Winners**

- While the Raiders have shocked the league with their perfect start, analysts are backing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in this crucial AFC West confrontation. KC has returned to its dominant form with Mahomes leading the way, and he’s 13-2 lifetime against the Raiders. The **NFL pick** is backing the Chiefs to cover the 4.5-point spread.
- With Baker Mayfield out it’s going to be tough for the Buccaneers to get their first win of the season. Other teams have responded without their starter getting inspired play from the rest of the roster. Tampa will do that against Green Bay putting them back in the NFC South race.
- I’m not convinced undefeated Minnesota is a Super Bowl contender; I am convinced winless Miami is the worst team in the NFL. The Vikings have a golden opportunity to stay unbeaten as a 10.5-point NFL betting line favorite. The Dolphins have failed to get a payout this season, twice when getting double-digit points.

### **Potential Upsets to Watch**

- The **NFL betting lines** moved in favor of Green Bay after Baker Mayfield was ruled out. The market may have overreacted against Tampa Bay, though. Jalon Daniels is an intriguing athlete with dual-threat ability that will shock the Packers defense. Tampa’s defense is capable of carrying a rookie QB to a low-scoring upset victory.
- The Jaguars enter their contest with Cincinnati as a slim road underdog but face a defense that got shredded by Pittsburgh last week. Trevor Lawrence tossed three TD passes last week leading an efficient Jags’ attack. Controlling the football and keeping Cincy’s offense on the shelf puts the Jags in position for the upset.

### **Games That Could Be Closer Than Expected**

- With 11 of 16 games having a spread fewer than four points, the Week 4 schedule is built for tightly-contested matchups. The Niners are a 3-point favorite but Denver’s defense can get after opposing quarterbacks. And the offense broke out on Monday night setting the stage for a tight interconference tilt.
- Detroit is heavily backed against a Carolina squad that lost in Cleveland last week. The Lions boast a potent offense, but what keeps this game close is their inability to stop teams. The Lions have the worst scoring defense and the second-worst total defense allowing Bryce Young to keep this game closer than expected.

## **NFL Odds & Betting Preview**

With the Week 4 NFL schedule featuring 11 of 16 games with an opening point spread of four points or fewer, **NFL betting odds** suggest a highly competitive slate. Teams are starting to form an identity and the odds are reflective of that. While a majority of games are expected to be close, there are two games that have an early double-digit spread; Minnesota (-10.5) against Miami and Baltimore (-11.5) over Tennessee.

### **How the Betting Lines Compare**

- The Week 4 **NFL betting odds** feature 11 games with a spread under four points, indicating the expectation is that almost the entire weekend will be decided by a single possession.
- Points are expected to be scored by teams that have done exactly that. The Jaguars at Bengals game has the highest total at 51.5 points with the Sunday Night Football match between Detroit and Carolina close behind with a total of 50.5 points.

### **Factors That Could Move the Odds**

- The impact of injuries to key players on NFL odds can’t be overstated. We saw a severe line shift in favor of Green Bay after Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield sustained a dislocated thumb.
- With Jaxson Dart out for the season the Giants offense remains a mystery. They failed to score a touchdown last week and game totals will continue to decline until we get a handle on Jameis Winston.
- Dealing with a short week tends to limit what teams do offensively. And with Pittsburgh and Cleveland being inconsistent in that area, the total has dropped to 38.5 points. Jalen Ramsey is managing a broken wrist and other defensive injuries could boost the total.

## **Best Bets for This Week’s NFL Games**

Week 4 **NFL best bets** highlight several top betting targets based on major injury shift and key statistical consensus. Based on these factors analysts have identified a few games as value bets. Projections are heavily backing Seattle to cover at home against the struggling Chargers.

### **Underdogs Worth Considering**

- The Steelers have been historically bad on Thursday nights and they’ve dropped their last four games in Cleveland. Backing the Browns at +2.5 is a NFL best bet.
- International games are notorious for travel variance, and getting Washington at more than a field goal after their upset of Seattle gives them excellent value.

### **Betting Markets With Potential Value**

- Miami has a tough time scoring and it could get worse without De’Von Achane. Minnesota’s blitz-heavy scheme will shut down the Fins giving value to the team UNDER.
- The public is fading Philadelphia with the Rams a 3-point road favorite. Backing a talented home team coming off an embarrassing loss is a profitable spot.

## **Final NFL Weekly Predictions & Key Takeaways**

Following a week where 12 games finished within a single score, the **NFL Week 4** takeaway is how the betting markets reacted. The majority of games this week are expected to be close with 11 of 16 contests having a betting spread of fewer than four points. Also, three of the five unbeaten teams – Minnesota, Las Vegas and Kansas City –didn’t qualify for the playoff last season.

### **Biggest Factors to Monitor**

- Quarterback availability and backfield injuries are key factors driving the NFL betting markets and changing game plans entering Week 4.
- In the absence of Jaxson Dart the Giants swung a deal for J.J. McCarthy. The offense has stalled under Jameis Winston lowering point total expectations.
- Bettors should cross-reference early week look-ahead [**betting lines**](https://www.primesportsbook.com/sports/football/nfl/) with current spreads and totals to exploit spots where the markets have overreacted.

### **Key Matchup to Monitor**

- The battle of unbeaten teams Kansas City and Las Vegas is the matchup to keep an eye on. The Raiders have been a surprise behind veteran Kirk Cousins and the Chiefs again look like a championship contender. This game plays a role in how the AFC West shapes up.

## FAQ

### What information is used to create NFL weekly predictions?

It doesn’t matter who is making the predictions; it’s all done by using historical data, advanced efficiency metrics, situational contexts, and market data to come up with the most probable outcome.

### Why do NFL teams perform differently at home and on the road?

The difference in how teams perform at home as opposed to on the road is what gives us the term “homefield advantage.” Studies have revealed a combination of factors for this that includes: the impact of crowd noise, the effect of travel, familiar surroundings and a subconscious officiating bias.

### How accurate are NFL preseason and weekly predictions?

The accuracy of predictions depends on what type of predicting is being made and when it is being made. Weekly season predictions are data driven and accurate while preseason team predictions are highly volatile.

### How do injuries impact NFL predictions and betting decisions?

Injuries are the single biggest factor in NFL betting serving as the primary agent for sudden betting line movement.

### Why do some NFL underdogs have value against the spread?

Underdogs frequently have value against the spread because sportsbooks build betting lines to minimize their financial risk and not to predict the exact final score.

Source: https://www.primesportsbook.com/gaming-insider/nfl-week-4-predictions-odds-best-bets-preview/